tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5117005533318160902.post1327511339466378881..comments2024-03-27T19:53:53.708-06:00Comments on growing changing learning creating: Instead of a total economic collapseTom Haskinshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12658791778134826289noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5117005533318160902.post-87774716830306721832009-02-06T09:14:00.000-07:002009-02-06T09:14:00.000-07:00Thanks for all the questions, Sean. It took my wri...Thanks for all the questions, Sean. It took my writing a new blog post to respond adequately. Analysis of problems can cause paralysis of creative alternatives. Innovations come about by a healthy kind of disregard that differs from denial of the real problem. All these pending crises invite us to function differently as inhabitants of the planet, members of communities and contributors to mutual support systems that include our environments.Tom Haskinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12658791778134826289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5117005533318160902.post-43833399341619062512009-02-05T22:13:00.000-07:002009-02-05T22:13:00.000-07:00Certainly energy conservation is the "lowest hangi...Certainly energy conservation is the "lowest hanging fruit" in terms of rapid reduction in our reliance on cheap fossil fuels, but how confident are you that we can "scale back energy consumption dramatically."? Most of the reports I've read (the ones coming from scientists, not politicians who have to say encouraging things) are pretty pessimistic.<BR/><BR/>Do you think that "monasteries and medieval villages" are the only sustainable level of society? If we slip back into the dark ages how will we maintain the global communication and information technology infrastructure you place so much faith in?<BR/><BR/>As for reducing our carbon output - as predicted individuals, business and government are having none of it. Here in Australia our government has decided on a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of only 5% by the year 2020, less than the 25% cut sought be environmentalists, and even less than the 10% recommended by the conservative scientist who was commissioned to do a report for the government. If the scientists are right then this is not enough to prevent the 2 degree rise in global temperatures that will result in runaway climate change.<BR/><BR/>And what about China and India? Sure the economic downturn has restricted growth rate, but they are still growing, and growth rates are likely to go up again.<BR/><BR/>I know I'm sounding like a doom-and-gloomer again, but I'd really like to know where you get your optimism from.<BR/><BR/>Back to the question of the new economy you describe... are you saying it will evolve irrespective of what challenges and crises are experienced?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5117005533318160902.post-34489104348152762202009-02-02T08:41:00.000-07:002009-02-02T08:41:00.000-07:00Thanks for all these thoughts Sean. In the short t...Thanks for all these thoughts Sean. In the short term, it may be possible to scale back energy consumption dramatically. The US would be an oil exporter if it consumed fossil fuels at the average rate of Europeans, one third of gluttonous Americans. The next economy will take serving each other to a new level. So even if we regress back to monasteries and medieval villages, we will be helping each other solve problems, adapt to changes, cope with challenges, etc. All the mutually supportive content added to the web each day is a preview of those coming attractions. I'm optimistic that the climate will come back from the brink of the slippery slope if we make a rapid back off from dumping so much carbon into the atmosphere.<BR/><BR/>The ever-present gangs of marauders have closed minds. It takes an open mind and a sealed cauldron to break up their patterns of desperation, vengeance and violence. Prisons and handcuffs are very primitive versions of how to captivate people about options that they cannot conceive of on their own. Storytellers understand cuffless captivity far better than prison guards. I suspect the handling of criminals on the loose will experience a significant upgrade in the next economy as well.Tom Haskinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12658791778134826289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5117005533318160902.post-18136076921900950362009-02-01T22:11:00.000-07:002009-02-01T22:11:00.000-07:00If the economic crisis was the only crisis we were...If the economic crisis was the only crisis we were facing I'd saying your prediction of a new form of economy might be accurate, and I certainly hope a model like the one you describe comes to pass, but what about Peak Energy and climate change as a result of global warming? I know you are fully aware of theses crises.<BR/><BR/>Civilisation will grind to a halt if we don't find an alternative to oil soon, which seems highly unlikely. Agriculture would stop for starters. Modern agriculture is dependent on fossil fuels for not only farm machines, irrigation, transport and refrigeration, but also for modern fertilizers and pesticides (read Michael Pollan). It would be impossible to maintain infrastructure such as roads (including wind farms and solar arrays, which can only ever go a short way to replacing fossil fuel's energy output anyway) without trucks and other oil-run equipment.<BR/><BR/>Then there's climate change. The cost of dealing with the social effects and infrastructure impact from extreme weather effects such as flooding, drought, heat waves, cyclones, hurricanes and severe snow and ice storms that are expected are likely to overwhelm the government's capacity to cope and afford appropriate disaster responses.<BR/><BR/>And then there's the social unrest. Many predict a break down in social order with riots and looting and marauding gangs, resulting in martial law, curfews etc. The cost of maintaining order through riot police, the National Guard and the Army would overwhelm the government as well. We've already had rioting in Iceland and now Paris.<BR/><BR/>And the initiatives you count on for salvation - crowd-sourced, peer-produced solutions based on the digital communications and digital devices? I'm concerned about the sustainability of these technologies. They use exorbitant amounts of cheap fossil-fuel-based energy to run, and are developed in factories dependent on energy and a constant flow of ever-diminishing resources like precious metals and fossil-fuel-derived plastics.<BR/><BR/>I'm not saying that things will get as bad as I've described, but a lot of smart people are. <BR/><BR/>I don't mean to be sounding pessimistic, but I'm wondering why your analysis doesn't take into account these critical elements.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5117005533318160902.post-47599992396482970722009-02-01T17:51:00.000-07:002009-02-01T17:51:00.000-07:00Thanks for adding a comment and appreciating what ...Thanks for adding a comment and appreciating what I've been writing. Good luck with all your learning about Organizational Learning.<BR/><BR/>TomTom Haskinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12658791778134826289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5117005533318160902.post-87225054804211715062009-01-31T23:04:00.000-07:002009-01-31T23:04:00.000-07:00Hello, nice to meet you hereI'm a college student ...Hello, nice to meet you here<BR/>I'm a college student from Hong Kong, i just randomly browsed your blogs.<BR/>I discovered you are emphaszed on changing, learning, or something related to knowledge.<BR/>I'm taking a couse which is empasized on Organizational Learning. So I am quite interested in your writings.sharon :3https://www.blogger.com/profile/00738069370278612279noreply@blogger.com